HOW TO BE A SUPERFORCASTER

HOW TO BE A SUPERFORCASTER.

            Some participants in the Good Judgment Project were given advice on how to transform their knowledge about the world into a probabilistic forecast and this training, while brief, led to a sharp improvement in forecasting performance.
The advice, a few pages in total, was summarised with the acronym CHAMP:
● Comparisons are important: use relevant comparisons as a starting point;
● Historical trends can help: look at history unless you have a strong reason to expect change;
● Average opinions: experts disagree, so find out what they think and pick a midpoint;
● Mathematical models: when model-based predictions are available, you should take them into account;
● Predictable biases exist and can be allowed for. Don’t let your hopes influence your forecasts, for example; don’t stubbornly cling to old forecasts in the face of news.
Illustration by Laurie Rollitt
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